高层住宅结构施工安全风险智能预警技术及防控机制研究

Research on Intelligent Early Warning Technology and Prevention Mechanism for Safety Risks in High-rise Residential Structure Construction

摘要

面向高差大、工序交叉频繁且临时构件参与受力的30层剪力墙住宅，提出“风险识别—智能预警—闭环防控”一体化方法。首先以文献归纳与两轮德尔菲法收敛出坠落、碰撞、胀模、挠度放大、脚手架失稳、板柱冲切及早龄期强度滞后7类关键风险；继而构建人员行为、设备状态、环境条件、结构性能四维预警指标体系，经AHP赋权与时段权重迭代后嵌入BPNN-RF-SVM软投票集成模型，实现5 min粒度动态推断。2025年4—8月现场验证显示，系统预警准确率由75%升至92%，事故发生率自1.2%降至0.3%，隐患整改闭环率由80%提至98%，且在高风及夜间浇筑场景下保持稳定。研究为高层住宅施工提供了可复制的风险量化与实时干预范式。

Abstract

For a 30-story shear wall residential building with significant elevation differences, frequent process overlaps, and temporary components subjected to structural loads, an integrated approach of “risk identification—intelligent early warning—closed-loop prevention and control” was proposed. The study first identified seven critical risk categories through literature review and two rounds of Delphi method: falls, collisions, formwork expansion, deflection amplification, scaffolding instability, slab-column shear failure, and early-age strength lag. A four-dimensional early warning indicator system was subsequently developed, incorporating personnel behavior, equipment status, environmental conditions, and structural performance. After AHP weighting and temporal weight iteration, the system was embedded with a BPNN-RF-SVM soft voting integration model to achieve dynamic inference at 5-minute granularity. Field validation conducted from April to August 2025 demonstrated improved system performance: warning accuracy increased from 75% to 92%, accident rate decreased from 1.2% to 0.3%, and closed-loop rectification rate rose from 80% to 98%, with stable performance even under high-wind conditions and nighttime casting scenarios. This research provides a replicable risk quantification and real-time intervention paradigm for high-rise residential construction.

关键词

高层住宅 / 施工安全 / 风险识别 / 智能预警 / 闭环防控

Key words

high-rise residential buildings / construction safety / risk identification / intelligent early warning / closed-loop prevention and control

参考文献

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