“三维四层”地市烟草企业安全生产动态风险评估模型构建

Construction of a Dynamic Risk Assessment Model for Work Safety of Municipal Tobacco Enterprises Based on the “Three - Dimension and Four - Layer” Framework

摘要

传统烟草商业企业安全生产管理模式具有风险识别滞后、管理被动等风险，本文提出并构建了一个”三维度-四层级”评估模型用于评估安全生产动态风险。该模型从状态维度、过程维度和趋势维度等几个维度进行评估，以基础数据层、指标计算层、综合评估层和决策应用层提供数据支撑，构成立体化风险评估体系。通过设定关键指标体系，建立预警干预机制，实现安全风险的可视化、可量化、可预警。实际应用显示，该模型显著提升了企业安全管理水平和风险防控能力，安全管理重点从事后问责转变为事前预防和过程控制。这项研究为企业智能化、精细化安全管理提供了理论参考和实践路径。

Abstract

In response to the problems of risk identification lag and passive management in traditional safety production management models for tobacco commercial enterprises, this paper proposes and constructs a “three-dimensional-four-level” dynamic risk assessment model for safety production. The model, with state dimension, process dimension, and trend dimension as the evaluation framework, and basic data layer, index calculation layer, comprehensive evaluation layer, and decision application layer as data support, forms a stereoscopic risk assessment system. By setting up a key indicator system and establishing a warning and intervention mechanism, it achieves the visualization, quantification, and early warning of safety risks. Practice shows that the model effectively promotes the transformation of safety management from post-event accountability to pre-event prevention and process control, significantly improving the enterprise’s safety management level and risk prevention capability. This study provides theoretical reference and practical path for the intelligent and refined safety management of enterprises.

关键词

地市烟草企业 / 安全生产 / 动态风险评估 / 风险预警 / 三维度-四层级模型

Key words

municipal tobacco enterprise / safety production / dynamic risk assessment / risk early warning / three-dimensional-four-level model

参考文献

[1] Haddon W. The many faces of injury prevention. American Journal of Public Health, 1970, 60(1): 19-29.

[2] 王小明. 基于PDCA循环的安全管理模型研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2015, 25(6): 143-148.

[3] 李华, 等 . 基于大数据的安全生产风险评估方法研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(11): 101-107.

[4] 国家烟草专卖局. 烟草行业安全生产标准化建设指南[Z]. 2020.

[5] 张强, 等 . 烟草企业安全管理创新与实践[M]. 北京: 中国烟草出版社, 2022.