多源因素影响下泰安市产水量变化规律研究

Variation Patterns of Water Yield in Tai'an City Under Multi-source Factors

摘要

产水量是生态系统服务功能中表征水资源供给能力的指标之一，对生态系统评价具有重要意义。本文采用InVEST模型中Annual Water Yield（年产水量）模块，利用GIS空间分析技术，对泰安市产水量变化规律及其对多源因素（降水量、潜在蒸散量、土地利用类型、净初级生产力、温度）的响应进行研究。研究结果表明：时间上，1990-2022年，泰安市平均产水量为234.92 mm，产水量以2.1 mm/yr的趋势增加，产水量变化主周期为25年，且在2018年存在突变。空间上，泰安市94.1%的地区产水量呈增加趋势，集聚模式为高值集聚；热点多集中于泰安市东部和城区，冷点多集中于西部和山地区。不同土地利用类型的产水能力由强到弱依次为建设用地、草地、耕地、林地、水域。多源因素中，泰安市产水量与降水量呈极强正相关性，且具有极显著性，两者在全时域、全时间尺度下都表现出强相干特征，产水量与潜在蒸散量、净初级生产力及温度相关性较弱。未来变化环境下，随着降水量的增加及城市用地的扩张，产水量呈增加趋势。研究结果对泰安市生态系统评价及水资源时空管理具有一定指导意义。

Abstract

Water yield, one of the indicators characterizing water supply capacity in ecosystem service function, is of great significance for ecosystem evaluation. This paper adopts the Annual Water Yield module of the InVEST model, and utilizes GIS spatial analysis technology to study the variation patterns of water yield in Tai'an City and its response to multi-source factors (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, land use types, net primary productivity, and temperature). The results show that temporally, the average annual water yield in Tai'an City from 1990 to 2022 is 234.92 mm, showing an increasing trend at a rate of 2.1 mm/yr; The main cycle of water yield change is 25 years, with an abrupt change observed in 2018. Spatially, 94.1% of the areas in Tai'an City exhibit an increasing trend in water yield, with the spatial aggregation pattern dominated by high-value clustering; Hot spots are mainly concentrated in the eastern and urban areas of Tai'an City, while cold spots are mostly located in the western and mountainous regions. The water yield capacity of different land-use types, in order from high to low, is construction land, grassland, cropland, forest land, and water body. Among the multi-source factors, the water yield in Tai'an City shows a strong positive correlation with precipitation, which is highly significant. Both exhibit strong coherence characteristics across all temporal and spatial scales. In contrast, the correlations between water yield and potential evapotranspiration, net primary productivity, and temperature are relatively weak. Under future changing environmental conditions, with the increase in precipitation and the expansion of urban land, water yield is expected to show an increasing trend. The findings of the study provide important insights for ecosystem assessment and the spatiotemporal management of water resources in Tai'an City.

关键词

产水量 / InVEST模型 / 泰安市 / 影响因素

Key words

Water yield / InVEST model / Tai'an City / influencing factors

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