山东省气象干旱-农业干旱时空演变规律研究

Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns of Meteorological and Agricultural Droughts in Shandong Province

摘要

山东省作为农业大省，开展干旱规律研究，对有效制定抗旱措施，保障粮食安全具有重要意义。本文以山东省为研究区域，采用1951-2022年降水、潜在蒸散发数据，2000-2020年土壤湿度数据，计算气象干旱指数SPEI、农业干旱指数SSI。采用slope趋势分析法、皮尔逊相关系数法、重心迁移模型研究山东省气象干旱、农业干旱的时空变化规律及传递关系。结果表明：气象干旱、农业干旱时间尺度越小变化越剧烈；山东省气象干旱、农业干旱以轻旱、中旱为主，平均面积占比分别为12.37%、10.44%，14%、10.5%；气象干旱中轻旱、中旱、重旱、特旱发生频率最高的分别为21.1%、19.7%、11.3%、4.2%，农业干旱轻旱、中旱、重旱、特旱发生频率最高的分别是45%、45%、20%、10%；气象干旱与农业干旱之间存在传递关系，平均传递时间为2.83个月。研究结果可为山东省干旱时空变化规律提供参考资料及技术支持。

Abstract

As a major agricultural province, research on drought patterns in Shandong Province is of significant importance for effectively formulating drought resistance measures and ensuring food security. Taking Shandong Province as the study area, this paper utilizes precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data from 1951 to 2022, and soil moisture data from 2000 to 2022, to calculate the meteorological drought index (SPEI) and agricultural drought index (SSI). It employs the slope trend analysis method, Pearson correlation coefficient method, and centroid migration model to study the spatiotemporal variation patterns and transmission relationships of meteorological and agricultural droughts in Shandong Province. The results indicate that the smaller the time scale, the more drastic the changes in meteorological and agricultural droughts. In Shandong Province, light and moderate droughts dominate both meteorological and agricultural droughts, with average area proportions of 12.37% and 10.44% for meteorological droughts, and 14% and 10.5% for agricultural droughts, respectively. The highest frequencies of light, moderate, severe, and extreme meteorological droughts are 21.1%, 19.7%, 11.3%, and 4.2%, respectively, while for agricultural droughts, the highest frequencies are 45%, 45%, 20%, and 10%, respectively. A transmission relationship exists between meteorological and agricultural droughts, with an average transmission time of 2.83 months. The findings of this study can provide reference materials and technical support for understanding the spatiotemporal variation patterns of drought in Shandong Province.

关键词

气象干旱 / 农业干旱 / 干旱频率 / 干旱传递

Key words

Meteorological drought / agricultural drought / drought frequency / drought transmission

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基金资助

山东省自然科学基金面上项目(ZR2021ME058)