石家庄市道路结冰特征及气象风险预报模型

Characteristics of road icing and forecast model of meteorological risk in Shijiazhuang city

摘要

基于石家庄市1956—2022年逐日气温、地温、雨雪及积雪现象观测数据,分析了石家庄市道路结冰的气候特征.基于Logistic回归构建道路结冰概率预报模型及气象风险等级预报模型,并以2019—2022年结冰季道路结冰数据对模型进行检验.结果表明:1) 石家庄市道路结冰呈现开始日期推迟、结束日期提前的趋势,结冰日数总体减少,平均每10 a减少2.6 d;2) 当日最低气温下降至5.1~2.0 ℃时,道路结冰概率进入快速增长期,其中3.6 ℃为结冰概率的敏感峰值;3) 当日最低气温在5.4 ℃以上时,道路结冰可能性很低;气温处于3.8~5.4 ℃时,可能出现道路结冰;气温在2.1~3.8 ℃时,结冰可能性较大;气温低于2.1 ℃时,结冰可能性很大.

Abstract

On the basis of road icing data and related traffic flow information in Shijiazhuang city from 1956 to 2022,based on Logistic regression,the climatic characteristics of road icing were analyzed,and the icing probability prediction model and the icing risk ranking prediction model were established.The models were tested using road icing data in the 2019—2022 icing seasons.The results show that:1) Icing in Shijia-zhuang has a tendency to delay the start date and advance the end date, the number of icing days decreases,with an average decrease of 2.6 d per 10 a; the icing occurs mostly in December-February.2) When the minimum temperature on the day drops to 5.1~2.0 ℃,the probability of road icing enters the fast-increasing period,3.6 ℃ is the sensitive peak base point of road icing probability.3) When the minimum temperature is above 5.4 ℃,there will be no road icing;at 3.8~5.4 ℃,icing may occur;at 2.1~3.8 ℃,it is more likely;when it is below 2.1 ℃,the probability of icing may be very large.

关键词

道路结冰 / 概率模型 / Logistic回归 / 风险预报

Key words

road icing / probability model / Logistic regression / risk prediction

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基金资助

河北省科技厅重点研发计划项目(21375410D)

河北省气象局科研项目(18KY07)