昆山市碳储量时空演变与预测———基于InVEST-PLUS模型分析

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Kunshan City Based on InVEST-PLUS Model

摘要

【目的】快速城镇化背景下，探究土地利用变化与碳储量时空分异特征，为优化土地利用结构、维持区域碳平衡与推动可持续发展提供思路。【方法】以昆山市为例，基于2002年、2012年、2022年的土地利用数据，借助PLUS-InVEST模型，对土地利用及区域碳储量进行多情景模拟及评估，并利用空间自相关分析揭示其碳储量时空分布规律。【结果】1) 2002—2022年土地利用类型转换以耕地、水域转为建设用地为主。总碳储量持续下降，碳储量空间格局具有显著异质性，高值区大多分布在千灯镇、锦溪镇等南部以生态用地为主的区域，低值区主要分布在经济技术开发区等中部建设用地密集区域，表明碳储量空间分异特征与土地利用格局密切相关。2) 2032年自然发展情景下总碳储量延续历史递减趋势。城镇扩张情景下，建设用地面积大幅增加而生态用地面积缩减，碳储量减少最为显著；而生态保护情景下碳储量正向增长。3) 昆山市碳储量具有较强聚集特征。高值聚集区主要分布于自然资源较为丰富的南部，低值聚集区主要集中在经济开发强度大的中部区域。【结论】耕地向建设用地转移是区域碳储量减少的主要驱动力，应严守南部碳储量高值区的生态底线，对中部碳储量低值区实施城镇绿色更新，维持碳储量稳定，从而实现城镇化发展与区域碳储量的协同，为优化昆山市土地利用格局、提升区域碳储量能力提供参考。

Abstract

【Objective】The study explores the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of land use change and carbon storage under the background of rapid urbanization, aiming to provide ideas for optimizing the land use structure, maintaining the regional carbon balance and facilitating sustainable development. 【Method】Taking Kunshan City as a case study, the study uses land use data in 2002, 2012 and 2022 and the PLUS-InVEST model to carry out a multi-scenario simulation and evaluation of land use and regional carbon storage, and conducts spatial autocorrelation analysis to reveal the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of carbon storage. 【Result】1) From 2002 to 2022, the conversion from arable land and water bodies to construction land dominated land use change. The total carbon storage continued to decline, and the spatial pattern of carbon storage exhibited significant heterogeneity. The high-value areas are mostly distributed in the southern parts of Qiandeng Town and Jinxi Town, which are dominated by ecological land, and the low-value areas are mainly distributed in the central parts of such as economic and technological development zones, where construction land is concentrated, indicating that the spatial differentiation characteristics of carbon storage are closely related to the land use pattern; 2) Under the natural development scenario toward 2032, the total carbon storage will continue the decreasing trend as it has historically. Under the scenario of urban expansion, the area of construction land will increase significantly while the area of ecological land will decrease, and carbon storage will decrease to the greatest extent. Under the ecological protection scenario, the carbon storage will increase; and 3) Carbon storage in Kunshan City presents strong aggregation characteristics. The high-value agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in the southern part with abundant natural resources, while the low-value agglomeration areas are mainly concentrated in the central region with high economic development intensity. 【Conclusion】The conversion of arable land to construction land is the main driver behind the reduction in regional carbon storage. It is proposed to strictly keep the ecological baseline in the high-value area of carbon storage, promote urban green renewal in the low-value area of carbon storage, and maintain the stability of carbon storage, so as to realize the coordination between urbanization development and regional carbon storage and provide references for optimizing the land use pattern of Kunshan City and improving the regional carbon storage capacity.

关键词

碳储量 / 土地利用 / 多情景模拟 / 时空变化 / 空间自相关

Key words

carbon storage / land use / multi-scenario simulation / spatiotemporal variation / spatial autocorrelation

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基金资助

*国家自然科学基金资助项目(41301191)

教育部人文社会科学研究项目(23YJAZH231)

2024年江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(KYCX24_3479)

苏州科技大学研究生优质资源建设项目(23SZKC-01)

“十四五”江苏省重点学科(风景园林学)资助项目()