萍乡市气候变化和人类活动对NPP时空变化的影响^*

The Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on NPP's Spatiotemporal Variations in Pingxiang City

摘要

【目的】在中小尺度上探究气候变化和人类活动对NPP时空变化的影响，识别中小城市生态环境变化趋势，评估区域生态承载力和政策调控，为萍乡市乃至类似中小城市的生态环境保护、气候适应管理和可持续发展策略制定提供科学支撑。【方法】以江西省萍乡市为例，基于遥感影像像元二分模型计算NDVI值，探析NDVI与气温、降水的滞后响应特征。利用朱文泉等 (2007) 改进的CASA模型定量系统评估2004—2024年总NPP及时空变化趋势，利用冗余分析和地理探测器识别NPP主导驱动因子及相互作用，系统分析2004—2024年NPP的时空变化特征及其对气候变化和人类活动的响应。【结果】1) 2004—2024年，降水量和气温驱动NDVI变化具有明显的滞后效应。总体来看，降水量对植被生长的调控比温度更为持久和显著。2) 2004—2024年，NPP在4个季节均表现出“显著增加”变化趋势。3) 2004—2024年，NPP的时空变化是气候变化协同人类活动和其他自然要素共同驱动的结果。NDVI、月总降水量和月平均气温是影响2004—2024年NPP变化的主要环境因子。人类足迹指数等人类活动因子和植被类型是影响相对较大的环境因子。4) NPP空间分异受多种驱动因子共同作用影响，任意两个驱动因子的交互作用对NPP空间分异的影响均大于单个因子。【结论】气候变化和人类活动共同驱动了萍乡市NPP的复杂变化。未来应综合考虑气候因子、土地利用和社会经济因素的协同调控效应，加强中小城市高分辨率时序数据应用、情景模拟预测方面的多源数据集成及多尺度机制解析的量化，提升区域生态监测和气候适应能力。

Abstract

【Objective】This study investigates the impact of climate change and human activities on the spatiotemporal variation of NPP on the mesoscale, identifies the change trends of the ecological environment in medium-sized cities, and assesses regional ecological carrying capacity and policy regulation, with the aim of providing scientific evidence for eco-environment protection, climate adaptation management and sustainability strategy for Pingxiang City and other similar cities. 【Method】Taking Pingxiang City in Jiangxi Province as an example, the study calculates the NDVI value based on the Pixel-based Binary Model of remote sensing images to explore the lag response characteristics of NDVI to temperature and precipitation. The improved CASA model developed by Zhu Wenquan is employed to assess the total NPP and its spatio-temporal trends from 2004 to 2024, and the dominant drivers of NPP and their interactions are identified using RDA redundancy analysis and GeoDetector. A systematic analysis is conducted on the spatiotemporal characteristics of NPP changes from 2004 to 2024 and their responses to climate changes and human activities. 【Result】1) From 2004 to 2024, precipitation and temperature had a significant lag effect on NDVI changes. Overall, precipitation had a more persistent and pronounced effect on vegetation growth than temperature; 2) From 2004 to 2024, NPP showed a “significant increase” in all four seasons, and there were obvious seasonal differences; 3) From 2004 to 2024, the spatiotemporal changes in NPP were driven jointly by climate change, human activities and other natural factors. NDVI, monthly total precipitation, and monthly mean temperature were the primary environmental factors influencing NPP from 2004 to 2024. Human activity factors such as the Human Footprint Index and the type of vegetation are the primary environment impact factors; and 4) Spatial differentiation of NPP is influenced by multiple driving factors, and the interaction between any two driving factors has a greater impact on spatial differentiation of NPP than any standalone factor. 【Conclusion】Climate change and human activities jointly drive the complex dynamics of NPP in Pingxiang City. Future research should take a combined consideration of the synergistic regulatory effect of climate factors, land use and socioeconomic factors, enhance the application of high-resolution time-series data in small and medium sized cities and promote the multi-source data integration for scenario monitoring and prediction, and improve the quantification of multi-scale mechanism analysis, so as to improve regional ecological monitoring and climate adaptation capacity.

关键词

NPP / NDVI / 气候变化 / 人类活动 / 萍乡市

Key words

NPP / NDVI / climate change / human activity / Pingxiang City

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基金资助

*山西省基础研究计划(202403021212082)

山西省基础研究计划(202403021222241)

2024年广西哲学社会科学研究年度课题(24GLF014)