长三角中心城市群景观破碎化与碳排放空间耦合特征

Spatial Coupling Characteristics Between Landscape Fragmentation and Carbon Emissions in the Central City Cluster of the Yangtze River Delta

摘要

【目的】揭示2003—2023年长三角中心城市群景观破碎化演变及其对碳排放的空间异质性影响，以及两系统耦合协调关系，为低碳空间优化提供依据。【方法】基于2003、2013、2023年3期土地利用和分部门碳排放数据，在10km×10km网格下以熵权法集成5项景观指数构建综合破碎化指数(FI)，并采用空间自相关、回归模型和耦合协调度模型分析。【结果】1) FI总体上升，重度破碎区扩大，高值区由城市边缘和交通廊道向外扩展；耕地、建设用地破碎化主要受城市扩张驱动，林地破碎化集中于生态敏感区。2) 碳排放持续增长，呈“核心高、外围低”格局，热点沿城际交通廊道扩展。3) FI与碳排放的双变量Moran's I逐年升高；MGWR的AICc最低，斑块密度和最大斑块指数总体呈负向作用，边缘密度和形状复杂度在高开发强度区呈正向作用。4) 耦合协调度总体提升，呈“核心带动、周边跟进”格局。【结论】景观破碎化在推动碳排放空间异化中具有重要作用，长三角中心城市群景观破碎化与碳排放的正向空间关联持续增强，且受景观结构、开发强度和城市发展阶段共同影响。相较于行政统计单元，统一网格、多尺度回归与耦合协调分析相结合能更细致识别城市群内部的局地集聚和空间异质性。未来应结合区域差异实施分区管控与结构优化，以促进低碳发展与国土空间优化的协同。

Abstract

【Objective】This study aims to reveal the evolution of landscape fragmentation in the central city cluster of the Yangtze River Delta from 2003 to 2023, identify its spatially heterogeneous effects on carbon emissions, and assess the coupling coordination relationship between the two systems, thereby providing a basis for low-carbon spatial optimization. 【Method】Based on land-use data and sector-specific carbon emission data from the three periods of 2003, 2013 and 2023, five landscape metrics are integrated using the entropy weight method to construct a comprehensive fragmentation index (FI) within a unified 10 km × 10 km grid. Spatial autocorrelation analysis, regression models and a coupling coordination degree model are then applied for follow-up analysis. 【Result】1) FI generally increases, while severely fragmented areas expand, and high-value areas extend outward from urban fringes and transport corridors. Fragmentation of arable land and construction land is mainly driven by urban expansion, whereas forest fragmentation is concentrated in ecologically sensitive areas; 2) Carbon emissions continue to rise, showing a pattern characterized by “the city core high while the periphery low”, and the hotspots expand along intercity transport corridors; 3) The bivariate Moran's I between FI and carbon emissions increases over time. MGWR has the lowest AICc; patch density and the largest patch index generally have negative effects, whereas edge density and shape complexity show positive effects in areas with high development intensity; and 4) The coupling coordination degree increases overall, displaying a pattern characterized by the fact that the core city leads the advancement in surrounding areas. 【Conclusion】Landscape fragmentation plays an important role in shaping the spatial differentiation of carbon emissions, and its positive spatial correlation with carbon emissions continues to strengthen in the central city cluster of the Yangtze River Delta, which has been jointly influenced by landscape structure, development intensity and urban development stage. Compared with analyses based on administrative statistical units, the integration of a unified grid, multiscale regression and coupling coordination analysis enables more refined identification of local clustering and spatial heterogeneity within the city cluster. In the future, zoning regulation and structural optimization should be implemented in line with regional conditions to promote the synergy between low-carbon development and territorial spatial optimization.

关键词

景观破碎化 / 碳排放 / 空间异质性 / MGWR模型 / 耦合协调

Key words

landscape fragmentation / carbon emission / spatial heterogeneity / MGWR model / coupling coordination

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基金资助

*浙江省自然科学基金重点项目(LZ23D010001)