微气候中介作用下住区绿地格局对碳汇效率的非线性影响^∗

Non-linear Effects of Residential Green Space Patterns on Carbon Sequestration Efficiency Under Microclimate Mediation

摘要

【目的】揭示城市住区绿地空间格局对植被碳汇效率(净初级生产力NPP)的非线性调控规律，辨识“格局－微气候－碳汇效率”的传导机制与关键阈值，为低碳导向的住区绿地更新提供量化依据。【方法】以大连市小高层住区为研究对象，构建住区绿地情景，耦合ENVI-met微气候模拟与改进CASA模型估算各情景的NPP，并采用随机森林回归与SHAP方法，识别规模、布局、形状3类绿地格局指标对碳汇效率的非线性影响。【结果】1)平均斑块面积和离散度为主导指标，重要性之和达69.5%；2)各绿地格局指标对碳汇效率的影响呈显著非线性，关键格局指标的最优区间为绿地率0.13~0.31、平均斑块面积≤500m²、离散度0.52~0.58、周长面积比0.22~0.48m·m^－2。【结论】住区绿地规划应超越“唯绿量论”，在保障合理绿地规模的前提下，倡导避免大斑块，采用适度分散、边界复杂的精细化布局，实现植被固碳效益最大化。

Abstract

【Objective】The study aims to reveal the non-linear regulatory patterns of spatial configuration of green space on vegetation carbon sink efficiency (net primary productivity, NPP) in urban residential compounds, and to identify the transmission pathways and critical thresholds of the “pattern-microclimate-carbon sink efficiency” chain, thereby providing a quantitative basis for low-carbon-oriented residential green space renewal. 【Method】Taking multi-storey residential areas in Dalian as the study object, the study constructs residential green space scenarios, and estimates the NPP under each scenario by coupling ENVI-met microclimate simulation with an improved CASA model. Random forest regression and the SHAP method are then employed to identify the non-linear effects of three categories of green space pattern indices including scale, configuration and shape on carbon sink efficiency. 【Result】1) Mean patch area and dispersion are the dominant indicators, with their combined importance at 69.5%; and 2) The impacts of various green space pattern indices on carbon sink efficiency exhibit significant non-linearity. The optimal ranges for key pattern metrics are identified, which include a green space ratio of 13%-31%, a mean patch area ≤500m², a dispersion of 0.52-0.58, and a perimeter-to-area ratio of 0.22-0.48m·m^-2. 【Conclusion】Residential green space should be planned beyond the “quantity-oriented” paradigm. Under the premise of ensuring a reasonable scale of green space, it is recommended to avoid large contiguous patches and instead adopt refined spatial layouts featuring moderate dispersion and complex boundaries to maximize the carbon sequestration benefits of vegetation.

关键词

住区绿地 / 绿地格局 / 碳汇 / 微气候 / 机器学习

Key words

residential green space / green space pattern / carbon sink / microclimate / machine learning

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基金资助

*国家自然科学基金青年基金(52308049)

辽宁省大学生创新训练计划项目(20251014141103)