北京市门头沟区花粉浓度变化及其与气象要素的相关性^∗

Pollen Concentration Variation and Its Correlation with Meteorological Elements in Mentougou District, Beijing

摘要

【目的】针对北京门头沟区植源性污染加剧、花粉过敏影响居民健康的现状, 探讨区域气传花粉浓度时空变化特征及高精度预报方法, 为当地居民出行防护、公共健康服务提供科学支撑。【方法】基于门头沟区2012—2019年逐日花粉与同步气象观测数据, 采用皮尔逊相关分析、分段逐步回归等方法, 系统分析花粉季起止时间、多时间尺度花粉浓度分布特征, 明确两个花粉高峰期内花粉浓度与气象因素关联规律, 分别构建春季、夏秋季花粉高峰期的浓度预报模型。【结果】门头沟区2012—2019年花粉季长度平均为187.5天, 整体呈波动上升趋势; 花粉浓度呈典型双峰分布, 3—4月、8—9月花粉总量占全年的87.3%, 两时间段花粉累积量基本持平。春季花粉浓度与风速呈显著负相关, 夏秋季花粉浓度受相对湿度、气温与降水共同调控, 调整后R²达0.8, 模拟效果显著优于春季模型。【结论】明确了门头沟地区气传花粉的独特分布规律, 即门头沟区两个花粉高峰期内花粉浓度与气象要素存在非对称关系, 是对北京地区气传花粉-气象要素互作机制体系的重要补充。后续花粉浓度预测建模应采用分时段构建的思路, 以提升花粉浓度的模拟精度与预报稳定性; 还需对更多花粉采样点进行监测, 包括对花粉种类、日变化特征的监测, 以提供更精细的花粉浓度预报; 还可沿海拔梯度布设多层级花粉观测断面, 进一步厘清北京西部气传花粉垂直输送与分布规律。

Abstract

【Objective】In view of the intensification of phytogenic pollution and the impact of pollen allergy on residents' health in Mentougou District, Beijing, this paper discusses the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of regional airborne pollen concentration and its high-precision forecasting method, aiming to provide the scientific evidence for improving travel protection and public health services for local residents'. 【Method】Based on the daily airborne pollen observation data and synchronous meteorological observation data in Mentougou District from 2012 to 2019, this study adopts Pearson correlation analysis, segmented stepwise regression and other methods to systematically analyze the start and end time of the pollen season and the multi-time-scale distribution characteristics of pollen concentration, clarify the correlation pattern between pollen concentration and meteorological factors during the two pollen peaks, and construct the concentration forecasting models for spring and summer-autumn pollen peaks, respectively. 【Result】The average length of the pollen seasons in Mentougou District from 2012 to 2019 is 187.5 days, showing an overall fluctuating upward trend. The pollen concentration presents a typical bimodal distribution, and the total pollen amount from March to April and from August to September accounts for 87.3% of the annual total, while the cumulative pollen amounts in the two peaks are basically equal. There is a significantly negative correlation between pollen concentration and wind speed in spring, while the pollen concentration in summer and autumn is regulated jointly by relative humidity, air temperature and precipitation. The adjusted R ² reaches 0.8, with significantly better simulation effect than that in the spring model. 【Conclusion】This study clarifies the unique distribution pattern of airborne pollen in Mentougou area. It means that there is an asymmetric relationship between pollen concentration and meteorological factors during the two pollen peaks in the Mentougou area, which represents an important supplement to the interaction mechanisms between airborne pollen and meteorological factors across the Beijing region. Subsequent pollen concentration forecasting models should adopt a time-period-specific approach to improve the accuracy of pollen concentration simulations and the stability of forecasts, select additional pollen sampling sites for pollen monitoring including species composition and diurnal variation characteristics to enable more refined pollen concentration forecasting, and deploy multiple-tiered pollen observation sections along elevation gradients to further elucidate the vertical transport and distribution patterns of airborne pollen in western Beijing.

关键词

花粉浓度 / 气象因子 / 逐步回归 / 北京门头沟

Key words

pollen concentration / meteorological element / stepwise regression / Mentougou District, Beijing

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基金资助

*北京市门头沟区野生生物资源动态监测服务项目(20250169)