全球视角下中国缺血性卒中疾病负担现状与趋势分析

Current Situation and Trend Analysis of Disease Burden of Ischemic Stroke in China from a Global Perspective

摘要

目的:分析1990—2021年全球和中国缺血性卒中(IS)疾病负担现状与趋势,为制定防治策略提供依据。方法:检索并收集2021年全球疾病负担(GBD)数据库中全球和中国IS流行病学数据,采用 R 软件分析IS发病率、患病率、死亡率、伤残调整生命年(DALYs)等疾病负担指标,通过自回归积分滑动平均模型预测未来20年IS的疾病负担,并筛选IS的风险因子。结果:全球范围内,IS疾病负担显著增加。2021 年中国IS 的发病率和患病率较 1990 年分别增加 35.72% 和34.20%,而死亡率和 DALYs较1990年分别下降14.29%和14.91%。IS疾病负担随着年龄增加而增加,男性IS疾病负担显著高于女性。未来20年中国男性和女性发病率继续增加,男性死亡率先增加然后保持不变,女性死亡率保持不变。高钠饮食、颗粒物污染和吸烟是IS的主要危险因素。结论:1990—2021年,中国IS疾病负担随着人口老龄化显著增加,预测未来IS造成的疾病负担将持续攀升,为全球及中国未来IS预防和管理政策制定提供了科学依据。

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the current situation and trend of disease burden of ischemic stroke (IS) in the world and China from 1990 to 2021, so as to provide basis for formulating prevention and treatment strategies. Methods: The epidemiological data of IS in the world and China in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database in 2021 were retrieved and collected. The incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and other disease burden indicators of IS were analyzed by R software. The disease burden of IS in the next 20 years was predicted by autoregressive integral moving average model. The risk factors of IS are screened. Results: Globally, the disease burden of IS has increased significantly. Compared with 1990, the incidence and prevalence of IS in China in 2021 increased by 35.72% and 34.20% respectively, while the mortality and DALYs decreased by 14.29% and 14.91% respectively. The disease burden of IS increased with age, and the disease burden of male is significantly higher than that of female. In the next 20 years, the morbidity of men and women in China will continue to increase, the mortality of men will first increase and then remain unchanged, and the mortality of women will remain unchanged. High sodium diet, particulate pollution and smoking were the main risk factors for IS. Conclusion: From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of IS in China increased significantly with the aging of the population. It is predicted that the disease burden caused by IS will continue to rise in the future. This study provides a scientific basis for the development of global and China's future IS prevention and management policies.

关键词

缺血性卒中 / 疾病负担 / 趋势分析

Key words

ischemic stroke (IS) / disease burden / trend analysis

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基金资助

河南省洛阳正骨医院博士科研启动项目(2023BS03)