多时间尺度气温暴露的健康效应研究进展

Progress in research on the health effects of multi-temporal scale temperature exposure

摘要

全球气候变化导致地表温度持续升高及极端天气事件频发，气温暴露已成为威胁人类健康的重要环境风险因素。目前环境流行病学研究在评估气温健康效应时，用到了小时气温、日平均气温、长期平均温度及气温变异等覆盖多时间维度的暴露评估指标。这些指标虽然从不同角度证实了气温暴露的健康危害，但现有评估体系依然缺乏对暴露指标的系统性整合。本文系统梳理气温短期暴露、长期暴露、气温波动等指标的健康效应与病理生理机制，阐明短期暴露主要引发急性生理失代偿，而长期暴露可造成慢性健康损害不断累积。最后，从跨时间尺度的视角，探讨了长期气候基线与短期气温变化之间的内在数理关系，为构建综合性气候健康风险评估框架提供方法学的参考。

Abstract

Driven by global climate changes，the continuous rise in ambient temperatures and the increased frequency of extreme weather events have rendered temperature exposure a critical environmental risk threat- ening human health．Current environmental epidemiological studies evaluating the health effects of tempera- ture employ exposure assessment metrics that span multiple temporal dimensions，including daily mean tem- perature，hourly temperature，long-term average temperature，and temperature variability．While these metrics have substantiated the adverse health impacts of temperature exposure from various perspectives，existing as- sessment frameworks are still in lack of a systematic integration of these exposure indicators．This paper sys- tematically reviewed the health effects and pathophysiological mechanisms associated with metrics such as short-term temperature exposure，long-term exposure，and temperature fluctuations，elucidating that a short- term exposure primarily triggers acute physiological decompensation，whereas a long-term exposure leads to a continuous accumulation of chronic health impairments．Finally，from a cross-temporal perspective，this paper attempted to explore the intrinsic mathematical relationship between long-term climate baselines and short- term temperature variations，thereby providing a methodological reference for establishing a comprehensive climate-health risk assessment framework．

关键词

气候变化 / 多尺度暴露 / 日平均气温 / 气温变异 / 健康风险 / 流行病学

Key words

climate changes / multi-scale exposure / daily mean temperature / temperature variability / health risk / epidemiology

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金会面上资助项目(42375179)

西藏自治区科技计划资助项目(XZ202501ZY0072)