基于夜间灯光数据的贵州省城镇扩展时空格局与动态驱动机制研究

Spatio-temporal patterns and dynamic driving mechanisms of urban expansion based on nighttime light data in Guizhou Province

摘要

城镇体系的时空演变及其驱动机制,是优化国土空间布局的关键科学问题。基于多源夜间灯光数据构建贵州省1984—2024年城镇空间数据集,运用扩展指数、冷热点分析与VECM模型,揭示了喀斯特山地城镇扩展的时空格局与动态驱动机制。结果表明:1)多源数据协同与“一地级市一年一阈值”方法有效提升了城镇提取精度。2)40年间城镇建成区增长约21倍,经历“低速起步—加速上升—高位平台—近期回调”4个阶段;冷热点演化呈“零星萌芽—轴线集聚—单极极化—多中心化”路径。3)高速公路密度、移动电话用户、旅游人数为核心驱动力,系统自我修正能力较强;地形坡度显著削弱驱动效应,城镇扩展优先选择0°～10°缓坡(占比>75%),近年向11°～22°中等坡度蔓延;生态红线构成刚性约束(系数-0.088)。研究揭示了长时序山地城镇化扩展规律,为国土空间优化提供参考。

Abstract

The spatio-temporal evolution of urban systems and its driving mechanisms represent a crucial scientific issue for optimizing territorial spatial planning.Using multi-source nighttime light data,this study constructs an urban spatial dataset for Guizhou Province from 1984 to 2024.By employing expansion indices,hot and cold spots analysis,and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM),it reveals the spatio-temporal patterns and dynamic driving mechanisms of urban expansion in a karst mountainous region.The results show that:1) The synergy of multi-source data and the "one prefecture-level city,one year,one threshold" method effectively improves the accuracy of urban area extraction.2) Over the 40-year period,the urban built-up area expanded approximately 21-fold,experiencing four stages:"low-speed starting,accelerated growth,high-level plateau,and recent adjustment." The evolution of hot and cold spots follows a path of "sporadic emergence,axis agglomeration,single-core polarization,and polycentric development." 3) Expressway density,mobile phone subscribers,and tourist arrivals are the core driving forces,and the system exhibits a strong self-correcting capacity.Terrain slope significantly weakens the driving effect,with urban expansion preferentially selecting gentle slopes 0°～10°(accounting for over 75% of the new area) and recently spreading to moderate slopes 11°～22° as gentle slope resources become scarce.The ecological red line constitutes a rigid constraint (coefficient:-0.088).This study reveals the expansion patterns of urbanization in mountainous areas of Guizhou from a long-term sequence perspective and provides a reference for optimizing territorial spatial planning.

关键词

多源夜间灯光数据 / 城镇扩展 / 驱动机制 / 向量误差修正模型 / 贵州省

Key words

multi-source nighttime light data / urban expansion / driving mechanism / vector error correction model / Guizhou Province

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(42362007)