The answer to how the land exchange system works in land circulation lies in constructing a parallel path for moderate-scale operations and smallholder farmers, thereby optimizing the endogenous development of smallholders. This paper utilizes Tobit and SNP models to analyze the impact of land swap systems on land circulation, based on data from 232 villages and 826 rural households collected from the surveys of Shandong and Anhui Provinces, in order to explore the relationship between land swap systems and land transfer. It has been found that the land exchange system has a relationship with the land circulation market, with the existence of the system at the household level inhibiting the choice of farmers to outflow land and promoting the endogenous development of small farmers. At the village level, the existence of a land swap system has promoted the land turnover rate in the village, and the average land transfer cost of the village has increased. At the same time, the impact of the land swap system on the land circulation market is affected by other characteristics. This enlightens that the land exchange system can be used as a breakthrough to realize large-scale land management, "double increase in income" between of both farmers and village collectives, and effective use of land resources.
2.半非参数回归模型SNP。考虑到离散选择模型的参数通过最大似然估计,通常是在对潜在误差项的分布施加假设后,如果正确指定了分布假设,那么参数估计量是一致且渐进有效的;然而,研究此类问题的学者在论文中所讨论到的,当偏离分布假设可能会导致不一致的估计[27⁃29];考虑到这个问题,本文效仿Gallant and Nychka所采用的半非参数(SNP)方法。半非参数回归模型一般表达式如下:
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