现代农业产业园能否联农带农?——来自陕西省现代农业产业园设立准自然实验的证据

Can Modern Agricultural Industrial Parks Promote Farmers? Evidence from Construction of Shaanxi Modern Agricultural Industrial Park

摘要

现代农业产业园是推动乡村振兴、实现联农带农的关键载体。作为综合性产业平台，现代农业产业园通过集聚资金、技术等要素，构建全产业链，有效推动乡村产业提质增效。其核心在于建立紧密的利益联结机制，通过就业、分红等方式，将农民深度嵌入价值链，直接拓宽其增收渠道，为乡村经济注入持续动力。选取2014—2023年陕西省县级面板数据以及浙大卡特-企研乡村产业研究团队2024公布的“涉农创新指数”，构建多时点双重差分模型（DID）、分位数回归以及两阶段双重差分（did2s）等方法，系统分析现代农业产业园政策对农村居民人均可支配收入的影响。研究表明，现代农业产业园的创立显著提高了农村居民的可支配收入，该结论在一系列稳健性检验下仍然成立。机制分析表明，现代农业产业园的主要作用是通过激发乡村创新创业活力和推动产业结构升级带动农民致富。异质性分析表明，现代农业产业园对位于陕北和关中地区、处于中低收入群体以及工业基础较完善县域的农民收入提升作用更显著。提出以下政策建议：加快国家现代农业产业园建设，科学规划布局扩大产业园区覆盖范围；突破传统农业单一的生产模式，通过就业结构优化带动农民增收；加大对现代农业产业园基础设施建设的投入，改善交通、灌溉、电力等条件，为农业产业园的发展提供良好的硬件支持。

Abstract

Modern agricultural parks are the key carrier in reviving rural areas and linking & benefiting farmers, enhance effectively rural industrial quality and growth through collecting capital, attracting technologies and establishing the entire industrial chain playing as a role of comprehensive industrial platform, with its core lying in a closely interest connection, placing farmers in the value chain via employment and sharing dividend, directly increasing their incomes and fueling the rural economy. This paper uses Shaanxi's 2014 to 2023 county panel data and “agriculture-related innovation index” released by ZJU-CARD Enterprise Research Rural Industry Team in 2024 to establish a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID), fraction regression and two-staged DIDs, which are applied to systematically study the impacts of modern agricultural industrial park policies on farmers' usable incomes. The polices outstandingly increased their income, validated after robustness test. The mechanism shows the modern agricultural industrial parks make farmers rich through stimulating rural innovation and startup and advancing industrial upgrading. Heterogeneity analysis suggests the modern agricultural industrial parks work with most effects for those in the Northern Shaanxi, Guanzhong areas, in middle to low income level and in counties with well-developed infrastructures. This paper puts forward suggestions on accelerating construction of modern agricultural industrial parks with appropriate planning to expand their coverage, on breaking the traditional sole producing mode to optimize employment structure to lead farmers to earn income more, on investing more infrastructures in transportation, irrigation, and power to provide supports for agricultural industrial parks development.

关键词

现代农业产业园 / 联农带农 / 共同富裕 / 双重差分模型

Key words

modern agricultural industrial parks / linking & benefiting farmers / mutually wealthy / DID model

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基金资助

国家社会科学基金项目(23BJY180)

陕西省教育厅科学研究计划重点项目(24JZ076)

延安市社科联重点项目(25AJJ27)

延安大学专项项目(2023JBSK.002)

延安大学科研项目(2022YDZX21)

延安大学大创项目(D2024188)