产业链视角下关键矿产资源供应风险影响因素及评价方法综述

Review of Risk Factors and Evaluation of Critical Minerals Supply Chain from Perspective of Industrial Chain

摘要

在全球能源转型与地缘格局重塑的背景下，关键矿产供应风险问题正日益凸显。本文从全产业链视角出发，构建含有上游(勘探开采)、中游(冶炼加工与运输)、下游(制造与应用)以及回收(循环利用)4个环节的分析框架，并据此明确关键矿产供应链的内涵。通过对国内外文献进行系统性梳理，识别出资源、市场、技术、地缘与社会5类风险因素。评价方法部分，本文系统梳理了矿产资源供应风险评价方法的演变路径，涉及静态综合法、多准则决策法、动态与网络法及机器学习方法，比较各方法的建模思路及其适用范围。研究对关键矿产供应风险的理论基础、影响因素、评价方法加以梳理，为关键矿产供应风险评估与相关政策研究提供借鉴。

Abstract

Under the global energy transformation and geopolitical pattern reconstruction, supply of critical minerals is emerging as a risk. This paper, viewing from perspective of whole industrial chain, establishes a framework composed of upstream (exploration & mining), middle stream (processing and transportation), and downstream (manufacturing and application), and recycling (renewable use), and determines the contents of supply chain of critical minerals. Based on the global references, five categories of risks have been identified as resources, markets, technologies, geopolitics and society. This paper studies the evolutionary path of risk evaluation of minerals supply, including static comprehensive method, multiple principles decision, dynamic and network and machine learning, with their model construction and applied ranges compared. This paper provides references for risks evaluation and policies of critical minerals supply from theoretical basis, factors and evaluation.

关键词

关键矿产 / 供应风险 / 产业链 / 影响因素 / 评价方法

Key words

critical minerals / supply risks / industrial chain / factors / evaluation

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基金资助

地球深部探测与矿产资源勘查国家科技重大专项(2024ZD1002001)