新旧动能转换背景下新动能发展对就业的影响效应研究

Impacts of New Kinetic Energy on Employment under New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion

摘要

自进入发展新常态以来，我国原有的传统要素禀赋优势结构发生深刻变化，经济增长由高速发展阶段向高质量发展阶段转变的原有动力边际效应不断减弱，亟须培育新动能体系，推动新旧动能转换。然而，新动能发展对劳动力就业的影响具有非线性、复杂性和不确定性等特征，可能具有破坏或创造两种完全方向不一的影响。在界定新旧动能转换内涵的基础上，构建新动能发展水平评价体系，从机理和实证两方面分析新动能发展对就业的影响，旨在为我国产业结构调整和就业政策的制定提供理论借鉴。研究表明：1）我国新动能发展整体仍处于低水平扩张阶段，呈现出波动上升的时间演化特征，发展过程中的不充分性特征逐渐减弱，主导产业发展水平贡献度显著高于生产要素发展水平和发展模式发展水平；2）新动能发展对就业具有显著的非线性效应，即受破坏效应与创造效应力量对比变化的影响，就业水平随着新动能发展水平的提高而呈现出先下降后上升的“U”型变化趋势。据此，本文提出要分阶段采取针对性对策：1）在新动能发展低水平阶段，要利用好再分配、第三次分配等手段加强对民生就业的扶持力度；2）在新动能发展处于高水平成熟阶段，要推动新兴生产要素广泛应用、传统产业改造与高技术产业发展、发展模式转变；3）鼓励科技创新，加快新旧生产要素动能转换，优化劳动与资本要素配置效率；4）加大技能教育培训投入力度，推动主导产业向高级化、服务化转变，实现主导产业转变与就业协同发展。

Abstract

Since entering a new developing stage, China's traditional occurrence structures have changed so deeply that the marginal effect of original kinetic energy has been declining from fast to quality development, which needs a system to drive the new/old kinetic energy conversion. Impacts of new kinetic energy on employment are of non-linear, complex and uncertain features, possible with destructive or creative impacts. Based on new/old kinetic energy conversion, an evaluation system for new kinetic energy development is established to analyze its impacts on employment aiming at providing references for China to make industrial structural adjustment and employment policies from theory and cases. China's new kinetic energy is still at a low expanding stage with fluctuated rising evolution, contribution of the leading industries is much higher than productive elements level and developing modes. New kinetic energy has a conspicuous non-linear effect on employment showing a falling-then-rising trend due to destructive effects and creative effects. This paper presents suggestions on making full use of reallocation and the third allocation to support employment at the low developing stage of new kinetic energy, on driving application of new productive elements, development and developing mode changes of traditional & high-tech industries at highly developing level of new kinetic energy, on encouraging technical innovation, advancing conversion of new/old productive elements, and optimizing labor and capital allocating efficiency, enhancing inputs on education and training to convert the leading industries into advancing and servicing along with employment.

关键词

新动能发展水平 / 劳动力就业 / 熵权-TOPSIS / 核密度估计

Key words

new kinetic energy development / labor employment / entropy-TOPSIS / kernel density estimate

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基金资助

江苏省卫生健康委医学科研项目(X0362)