大食物观下辽宁省粮食供应链韧性评价与提升路径研究

Evaluation and Enhancement Pathways for Grain Supply Chain Resilience in Liaoning Province from the Greater Food Approach Perspective

摘要

提升粮食供应链韧性是保障粮食安全的重要举措。以辽宁省为例，在大食物观视角下从抵抗力、适应力、恢复力、更新力4个维度构建粮食供应链韧性评价指标体系，基于2014—2022年辽宁省14个城市区域数据，采用EWM-Critic组合赋权、Dagum基尼系数和Kernel核密度等方法，评价辽宁省粮食供应链韧性发展水平、空间区域分异和时间演进特征。研究发现：经济较好地区粮食供应链韧性已由高速增长阶段转为高质量提升阶段，农业供给侧改革是推动粮食供应链韧性跃迁的重要举措；4个粮食功能区之间粮食供应链韧性的不均衡发展制约了辽宁省整体粮食供应链韧性协调发展水平；2014—2022年辽宁省粮食供应链韧性水平不断提升，空间格局上韧性水平发展由“中高西低”向“西高中低”演变，时间维度上高韧性区域逐年增加，区域间供应链韧性协调发展成为主要问题。基于以上研究结论，提出围绕“四力”建设、弥补区域发展差距、坚持系统观念等提升路径，以期为辽宁省粮食安全提供决策参考。

Abstract

Strengthening grain supply chain resilience is essential to safeguarding food security. Taking Liaoning Province as a case, this study develops an evaluation index system for grain supply chain resilience under the Greater Food Approach across four dimensions: resistance, adaptability, recovery, and renewal. Based on panel data for 14 prefecture-level cities in Liaoning from 2014 to 2022, the study applies the combined EWM-Critic weighting method, the Dagum Gini coefficient, and kernel density estimation to assess the resilience level, spatial differentiation, and temporal evolution of the provinces grain supply chain. The results indicate that in economically stronger areas, grain supply chain resilience has shifted from rapid growth to a stage characterized by high-quality improvement, and agricultural supply-side reform is a key driver of resilience upgrading. The uneven development of resilience among the four grain functional zones constrains coordinated resilience improvement across the province. Overall, resilience increased steadily from 2014 to 2022; spatially, the pattern evolved from higher in the central region and lower in the west to higher in the west and lower in the central region, and over time, the number of high-resilience areas rose year by year. Coordinated resilience development among regions remains a major challenge. Accordingly, this paper proposes enhancement pathways including strengthening the four capacities, narrowing regional development gaps, and adopting a systems perspective, with the aim of providing policy-relevant insights for food security in Liaoning Province.

关键词

大食物观 / 粮食供应链 / 韧性 / 辽宁省

Key words

greater food approach / grain supply chain / resilience / Liaoning Province

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基金资助

辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目(L24AJY001)