长江中游城市群生态足迹动态分解与区域差异

Dynamic Decomposition and Regional Differences of Ecological Footprint in the Urban Agglomeration of the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

摘要

首先论文基于2010—2022年长江中游城市群的生物资源消耗、能源消耗、经济社会发展等数据，计算了其生态足迹；然后采用三维生态足迹对其可持续性进行了分类，并构建LMDI模型确定了生态足迹的主要影响因素；最后利用基尼系数和泰尔指数分析长江中游城市群生态足迹主要影响因素的区域差异。研究结果显示：1）长江中游城市群生态足迹呈现“低足迹、低承载力”的特征，人均生态足迹（1.223 hm²/人）远低于全国平均水平（3.737 hm²/人）；2）2010—2022年长江中游城市群生态承载力持续微降，能源用地成为生态足迹的主导类型，在萍乡、新余等工业城市能源用地占比超过90%，而生态承载力构成以林地和耕地为主，但空间分布不均；3）基于生态足迹广度与深度的矩阵分类显示，研究期内仙桃、天门等城市的生态承载力由低可持续状态提升至中等水平，而武汉、鄂州等技术型重工业城市生态承载力仍处于不可持续状态，整体上中部城市可持续性较强，北部城市可持续性提升显著；4）LMDI分解进一步揭示，经济增长（贡献率45.3%）与技术进步（贡献率38.7%）是生态足迹扩大的主要驱动因素，技术进步并未整体抑制生态压力，说明工业扩张带来的资源需求抵消了绿色技术效益，反映出当前技术路径仍依赖高能耗模式，人口与土地结构影响微弱；5）区域技术经济差异分析表明，技术资源的空间分布在2015年前高度集中，基尼系数达0.76，随后因技术扩散与次级城市产业升级逐步改善，经济差异则整体稳步下降，尤其在2020年后趋于均衡，印证了区域协同政策在推动经济融合方面的积极作用。

Abstract

Based on data on bio-resource consumption, energy consumption, and socio-economic development in the urban agglomeration of the middle reaches of Yangtze River from 2010 to 2022, this paper calculates the ecological footprint; classifies sustainability using the three-dimensional ecological footprint model; constructs an LMDI model to identify the main driving factors of the ecological footprint; and finally analyzes regional differences in these main factors using the Gini coefficient and the Theil index. The results show that: 1) the ecological footprint of the urban agglomeration is characterized by “low footprint, low carrying capacity”, and the per-capita ecological footprint (1.223 hm²/person) is far below the national level (3.737 hm²/person); 2) the ecological carrying capacity of the urban agglomeration shows a slight continuous decline from 2010 to 2022, energy land is the dominant component of the ecological footprint, accounting for more than 90% in industrial cities such as Pingxiang and Xinyu, while ecological carrying capacity is mainly composed of forestland and cropland but is unevenly distributed spatially; 3) matrix classification based on ecological footprint breadth and depth shows that during the study period, cities such as Xiantao and Tianmen improved from low sustainability to a medium level, whereas technology-intensive heavy industrial cities such as Wuhan and Ezhou remain unsustainable. Overall, central cities show stronger sustainability, and northern cities exhibit significant improvements; 4) LMDI decomposition further reveals that economic growth (contribution rate 45.3%) and technological progress (contribution rate 38.7%) are the main drivers of ecological footprint expansion. Technological progress does not, on the whole, curb ecological pressure, indicating that resource demand from industrial expansion offsets the benefits of green technology. This suggests the current technological path still relies on a high-energy-consumption model, while the effects of population and land structure are relatively small; and 5) analysis of regional techno-economic differences indicates that the spatial distribution of technological resources was highly concentrated before 2015 (Gini coefficient 0.76), but subsequently improved as technology diffused and secondary cities upgraded their industries. Economic disparities declined steadily overall and tended to balance especially after 2020, confirming the positive role of regional coordination policies in promoting economic integration.

关键词

长江中游城市群 / 三维生态足迹 / 生态承载力 / LMDI模型 / 区域差异

Key words

The urban agglomeration of the middle reaches of Yangtze River / three-dimensional ecological footprint / ecological carring capacity / LMDI model / regional difference

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金面上项目(72273151)

中国石油大学（北京）校级博士后基金(2462025SZBH001)

东营市与重质油全国重点实验室碳中和联合研究院研发课题