碳市场激励下的企业股价表现——来自全国碳交易市场的证据

Corporate Stock Price Performance under Carbon Market Incentives：Evidence from China's National Carbon Emissions Trading Market

摘要

在“双碳”目标背景下，加强碳市场与资本市场协同建设可强化资本市场功能，引导资金向绿色低碳领域配置，并通过碳排放交易机制对企业减排行为形成约束与激励。然而，碳交易机制如何影响企业的资本市场估值尚未完全揭示清楚。基于全国碳排放权交易市场建设背景，以2018—2024年参与碳交易的上市公司为样本，采用倾向得分匹配和双重差分（PSM-DID）方法，系统考察碳交易机制对企业股价的影响及其作用机制。研究结果如下。首先，纳入全国碳市场管控的企业相较于未参与企业，在长期内呈现显著的正向股价溢价效应。其次，机制分析表明碳交易机制通过4重路径促进股价提升：1）激励企业加大绿色技术研发投入，提升碳减排效率，增强市场对企业长期竞争力的预期；2）强化企业环境信息披露，降低投资者信息不对称，提高市场信任度与估值水平；3）通过绿色生产优化企业税负，间接提升企业股价；4）通过绿色信贷效应促进企业股价提升。最后，通过平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验等稳健性测试验证了结论的可靠性，为完善碳市场政策设计、优化企业碳资产管理及引导资本市场绿色投资提供了重要依据。

Abstract

Under the “dual carbon” goals, strengthening the coordinated development of the carbon market and the capital market can enhance capital-market functions, guide funds toward green and low-carbon sectors, and form both constraints and incentives for corporate emission-reduction behavior through carbon emissions trading. However, how the carbon trading mechanism affects firms' capital-market valuation has not been fully clarified.Under the development of China's national carbon emissions trading market, this paper uses listed firms participating in carbon trading from 2018 to 2024 as a sample and applies a propensity score matching and difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) approach to systematically examine the impacts of carbon trading on corporate stock prices and the underlying mechanisms. The study finds: 1) firms included in the national carbon market exhibit a significant positive stock price premium in the long run relative to non-participating firms; 2) mechanism analysis shows that the carbon trading mechanism boosts stock prices through four channels. The four it incentivizes firms to increase investment in green technology R&D, improves carbon-reduction efficiency, and strengthens market expectations of long-term competitiveness; 2) it enhances environmental information disclosure, reduces information asymmetry for investors, and increases market trust and valuation; 3) it optimizes firms' tax burden through greener production, indirectly raising stock prices; and 4) it raises stock prices via a green-credit channel. Finally, robustness tests such as parallel-trend and placebo tests confirm the reliability of the results, providing evidence for improving carbon market policy design, optimizing corporate carbon-asset management, and guiding green investment in capital markets.

关键词

全国碳交易市场 / 碳排放权交易政策 / 企业股价 / 双重差分模型 / 低碳转型

Key words

national carbon emissions trading market / carbon emissions trading policy / corporate stock price / difference-in-differences model / low-carbon transition

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(72461032)