成渝地区双城经济圈绿色金融对碳减排的影响研究

Impacts of Green Financing on Carbon Emission Reduction in Chengdu-Chongqing Dual-city Economic Circle

摘要

随着“双碳”目标的深入推进，绿色金融作为推动碳减排的重要工具，发挥着至关重要的作用。基于成渝地区双城经济圈16个城市2010—2022年面板数据，首先利用固定效应模型检验成渝地区双城经济圈绿色金融对碳排放的直接影响；其次选取产业结构升级作为中介变量，构建中介效应模型探究产业结构升级在二者之间的作用机制；然后将样本按技术水平高低以及分布位置进行分组回归，对异质性进行检验；最后，采用莫兰指数及其散点图证明碳排放强度的空间分布特征，构建空间杜宾模型分析绿色金融对碳排放的空间溢出效应。结果表明：1）成渝地区双城经济圈绿色金融显著降低碳排放，并且在通过稳健性检验后，结论仍然成立；2）通过机制检验，发现成渝地区双城经济圈绿色金融能够通过产业结构升级间接抑制碳排放；3）异质性检验发现，与低技术水平地区和中心城市相比，绿色金融在高技术水平地区和毗邻城市发挥的减碳效果更加明显；4）绿色金融发展不仅能显著抑制本地碳排放，还能有效降低邻近地区碳排放，表现出负向空间溢出效应。基于此，提出应重视绿色金融发展、加强绿色金融与产业政策协同、制定差异化的碳减排政策、关注地区间联合减排行动，以促进成渝地区双城经济圈实现碳减排。

Abstract

With the in-depth advancement of the “dual carbon” goals, green financing-as an important tool for promoting carbon reduction-plays a crucial role. Based on panel data for 16 cities in the Chengdu-Chongqing dual-city economic circle from 2010 to 2022, this study first employs a fixed-effects model to test the direct impact of green financing on carbon emissions. It then selects industrial-structural upgrading as a mediating variable and builds a mediation-effect model to explore the underlying mechanism. Next, the sample is split by technological level and by spatial location for grouped regressions to test heterogeneity. Finally, Moran's I and the Moran scatter plot are used to verify the spatial distribution characteristics of carbon-emission intensity, and a spatial Durbin model is constructed to analyze the spatial spillover effects of green finance on carbon emissions. The results show that: 1) green financing significantly reduces carbon emissions in the Chengdu-Chongqing dual-city economic circle, and the conclusion remains valid after robustness tests; 2) mechanism tests indicate that green financing can indirectly curb carbon emissions through industrial-structure upgrading; 3) heterogeneity tests show that, compared with low-technology areas and core cities, green financing has a more pronounced carbon-reduction effect in high-technology areas and in adjacent cities; and 4) green financing development not only significantly suppresses local carbon emissions, but also effectively reduces emissions in neighboring areas, exhibiting a negative spatial spillover effect. Based on these findings, the study proposes the following recommendations: prioritize green finance development; strengthen coordination between green finance and industrial policies; formulate differentiated carbon-reduction policies; and promote joint inter-regional emission-reduction actions to facilitate carbon reduction in the Chengdu-Chongqing dual-city economic circle.

关键词

成渝地区双城经济圈 / 绿色金融 / 碳排放强度 / 空间杜宾模型

Key words

Chengdu-Chongqing dual-city economic circle / green financing / carbon-emission intensity / spatial Durbin model

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基金资助

陕西省社会科学基金项目(2023D044)