数字经济发展与能源转型——内在机理与实证检验

Digital Economy Development and Energy Transition: Internal Mechanisms and Empirical Tests

摘要

稳妥推进碳达峰、碳中和是我国统筹经济增长与生态环保的全局性重大战略部署，也是践行绿色发展理念、应对全球气候变化、推动经济高质量发展的必然要求。能源转型作为落实“双碳”战略的核心路径，其推进成效直接关系到“双碳”目标的实现进程。当前，能源新质生产力为能源转型注入全新动力，数字经济作为新时代的核心生产要素，与能源新质生产力深度融合，成为破解我国能源转型中技术创新不足、资源配置不合理、区域发展不均衡等难题的关键举措。基于此，从能源新质生产力视角，选取2011—2023年我国30个省份的面板数据，建立数字经济发展与能源转型评价指标体系，并运用固定效应模型与中介效应模型，实证检验数字经济对能源转型的影响效应及其内在机制。研究表明，数字经济发展对能源转型具有显著的正向促进作用，数字经济主要通过深化技术创新、提高资源配置效率、推动产业结构转型升级3条路径协同驱动能源转型。数字经济对能源转型的促进作用存在明显差异：从区域层面来看，西部地区的促进效应最为显著，东部地区相对较弱；从数字经济形态来看，数字产业化对能源转型的推动效应明显高于产业数字化；从能源禀赋层面来看，能源禀赋型省份的转型促进作用显著强于非能源禀赋型省份。研究结论为推动数字技术与能源产业深度融合、加快培育能源新质生产力提供依据，为制定差异化、精准化的能源转型政策提供重要参考，对构建现代能源体系、稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和目标的实现具有重要的实践指导意义。

Abstract

Steadily advancing carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is a major overarching strategic arrangement for China to coordinate economic growth with ecological and environmental protection, and it is also an inevitable requirement for practicing the concept of green development, responding to global climate change, and promoting high-quality economic development. As the core pathway for implementing the “dual carbon” strategy, energy transition directly determines the progress of achieving the “dual carbon” goals. At present, new quality productive forces in the energy sector inject new impetus into energy transition. The digital economy, as a core factor of production in the new era, is deeply integrated with new quality productive forces in the energy sector, becoming a key measure to overcome bottlenecks in China's energy transition, such as insufficient technological innovation, irrational resource allocation, and imbalanced regional development. Accordingly, from the perspective of new quality productive forces in the energy sector, this paper selects panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2023, constructs a multidimensional evaluation index system for digital economy development and energy transition, and uses fixed-effect and mediation-effect models to empirically examine the impact of the digital economy on energy transition and its internal mechanism. The results show that digital economy has a significant positive promoting effect on energy transition, mainly through technological innovation, improved resource allocation efficiency, and industrial structure upgrading. There are notable differences in the promoting effect of digital economy on energy transition. The effect is strongest in western China and weaker in the east; digital industrialization has a stronger effect than industrial digitalization; and energy-endowed provinces show stronger effects than non-energy-endowed ones. This study provides evidence for digital-energy integration and new quality productive forces in energy, informs differentiated energy transition policies, and supports building a modern energy system and achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality

关键词

数字经济 / 能源转型 / 能源新质生产力 / 技术创新 / 产业结构升级 / 资源配置优化

Key words

digital economy / energy transition / new quality productive forces in energy / technological innovation / industrial structure upgrading / resource allocation optimization

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基金资助

陕西省哲学社会科学重大理论与现实问题重点智库研究项目(2021ZD0998)

碳达峰、碳中和政策体系研究(2021D1001)

陕西省人大财经委高质量发展专题调研课题研究项目(2022HZ1541)