农业产业集聚与城乡收入差距——基于现代农业产业园设立的准自然实验

Agricultural Industrial Agglomeration and Rural-Urban Income Gap: A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on the Establishment of Modern Agricultural Industrial Parks

摘要

现代农业产业园是集聚农业生产要素、重塑乡村产业体系、推进农业现代化的核心载体，也是推动城乡融合发展、缩小城乡发展差距的重要抓手。为科学评估农业产业集聚对城乡收入差距的影响，厘清现代农业产业园政策的收入分配效应与传导机制，缓解农村增收动力不足、城乡发展不均衡等问题，以陕西省省级现代农业产业园创建为准自然实验，选取2013—2024年陕西省90个区县面板数据为研究样本，运用多时点双重差分模型、中介效应模型及异质性检验方法，实证考察产业园建设对城乡收入差距的影响效果与作用路径。研究表明：1）现代农业产业园政策能够显著缩小城乡收入差距，这一结论在经过多项稳健性检验后仍然成立；2）产业园政策可通过提升社会消费水平、提高农业机械总动力2条传导路径优化城乡资源配置、促进农民增收，进而实现城乡收入差距收敛；3）政策效应存在显著的禀赋异质性，在陕北地区、耕地资源稀缺区县及经济欠发达低收入区县的赋能效果更为突出，而关中地区因非农产业成熟呈现政策边际效应递减，陕南地区受地形条件与配套设施约束，政策减差效果未通过显著性检验。基于研究结论，提出以下建议：依据陕北、关中、陕南区域禀赋实施差异化政策扶持，结合耕地规模与经济发展水平精准制定产业发展策略，强化产业园要素集聚与三产融合能力，完善联农带农利益联结机制，充分释放产业集聚的增收赋能效应，持续缩小城乡收入差距。

Abstract

Modern agricultural industrial parks are key carriers for agglomerating agricultural production factors, reshaping the rural industrial system, and advancing agricultural modernization. They are also important means of promoting urban-rural integrated development and narrowing urban-rural development gap. To scientifically assess the impact of agricultural industrial agglomeration on the urban-rural income gap, clarify the income distribution effect and transmission mechanism of modern agricultural industrial park policies, and alleviate problems such as insufficient rural income growth momentum and unbalanced urban-rural development, this paper takes the establishment of provincial-level modern agricultural industrial parks in Shaanxi as a quasi-natural experiment. Using panel data from 90 districts and counties in Shaanxi from 2013 to 2024, it empirically examines the effect and pathways of industrial park construction on the urban-rural income gap by employing a staggered difference-in-differences model, a mediation effect model, and heterogeneity tests. Results show that the modern agricultural industrial park policy significantly narrows the urban-rural income gap; it works mainly by raising social consumption and increasing total agricultural machinery power. The empowering effect is stronger in northern Shaanxi, land-scarce counties, and less-developed low-income counties, marginal in Guanzhong, and insignificant in southern Shaanxi. The Guanzhong region shows diminishing marginal policy effects due to its mature non-agricultural industries, while in southern Shaanxi, constrained by terrain conditions and supporting facilities, the income-gap-reducing effect does not pass the significance test. It is recommended that policies be differentiated by regional endowment and tailored to land scale and economic development level, and that factor agglomeration, industrial integration, and farmer-benefit linkage mechanisms be strengthened.

关键词

现代农业产业园 / 农业产业集聚 / 城乡收入差距 / 多时点双重差分法 / 陕西

Key words

modern agricultural industrial park / agricultural industrial agglomeration / urban-rural income gap / staggered difference-in-differences / Shaanxi

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基金资助

陕西省教育厅科学研究计划重点项目(24JZ076)

延安市社科联重点项目(25AJJ27)

延安大学专项项目(2023JBSK-002)

延安大学科研项目(2022YDZX21)

延安大学乡村发展研究院2025年度产学研合作项目(05)

陕西省哲学社会科学研究专项2026年度重点项目(2026ZD1507)

陕西省科技厅软科学项目(2026GH-YBXM-037)