投入产出关联视角下清洁能源开发对西藏地区经济社会发展的拉动效应研究

Pulling Effect of Clean Energy Development on the Economic and Social Development of the Xizang Region from the Perspective of Input-Output Linkages

摘要

推动清洁能源替代化石能源是我国实现“双碳”目标与绿色转型的战略要求。突破单一评估框架，构建适配西藏高原区域特征的多尺度多区域投入产出模型，识别西藏清洁能源基地建设对经济增长、就业吸纳及碳排放的异质性传导机制，厘清经济发展与生态减排的协同关系，为高原地区绿色转型提供微观实证依据。深度整合中国碳核算数据库2017年投入产出表、分部门碳排放清单及西藏地方统计数据，通过部门精细化归并处理完整保留西藏本地 42个细分产业，精准刻画区域内部产业联动结构；从总产出、产业增加值、城镇就业与碳排放4个维度，对能源投资的直接效应与产业链溢出效应进行测度，并开展参数敏感性检验保障结论的稳健性。研究表明：1）经济效益高度内聚且存在特定的服务业溢出。投资对能源部门产出、增加值的拉动贡献占比超95%，受制于工业配套薄弱，对其他制造业拉动有限，但跨越式催生了金融、商务等第三产业繁荣。2）就业传导链条短，近99%的新增就业集中在能源开发行业，现代服务业表现出“高经济贡献、低就业吸纳”的传导衰减特征，且城乡二元结构限制了农牧业受益。3）受工程建设影响，短期内区域绝对碳排放增加，但相比全国平均排放强度，西藏清洁能源开发可抵消近半数的潜在碳排放增量，相对减排优势巨大。综合来看，西藏清洁能源投资能够壮大能源支柱产业、带动现代服务业并展现出极高的低碳潜能，但也暴露出产业后向关联弱、就业普惠性不足的局限。据此提出政策优化路径：政府建立绿色电力认证体系，挖掘跨区域生态环境溢价收益，引导社会资本深耕清洁能源与生产性服务业融合赛道；依托绿电成本比较优势实施“以电引产”，培育本地特色绿色工业集群，将重大项目红利转化为区域发展的包容性成果。

Abstract

Promoting clean energy substitution is vital for China's dual-carbon goals and green transition. This paper builds a multi-scale, multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model adapted to the Xizang Plateau to identify how clean energy base construction affects growth, employment and carbon emissions, and to clarify economic-ecological synergies. Using the 2017 input-output table from the China carbon accounting database, sectoral carbon inventories, and Xizang statistics, it preserves 42 local sub-sectors and measures direct and spillover effects of energy investment via output, value added, urban employment and emissions, with sensitivity tests. Results show that economic benefits are highly concentrated in the energy sector, contributing over 95% of output and value-added pull, with spillovers mainly to finance and business services, while weak industrial support limits manufacturing linkages. Employment effects are short-chained, with nearly 99% of new jobs in energy development, and modern services show high economic contribution but low employment absorption. Carbon emissions rise short-term, yet clean energy development offsets nearly half the potential increase relative to national average intensity. Overall, investment strengthens the energy pillar, boosts modern services, and shows strong low-carbon potential, but faces weak backward linkages and limited employment inclusiveness. Government should establish green electricity certification, capture cross-regional ecological premiums, guide social capital into clean energy-producer services integration, use low-cost green electricity to attract industry, cultivate local green clusters, and turn project dividends into inclusive regional development.

关键词

清洁能源开发 / 经济效益 / 社会影响 / 环境影响 / MRIO模型

Key words

clean energy development / economic benefits / social impacts / environmental impacts / MRIO model

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(42471334)