中国新质生产力空间关联网络特征及驱动因素研究

Characteristics and Driving Factors of the Spatial Correlation Network of China's New Quality Productive Forces

摘要

新质生产力是推动我国经济高质量发展的关键引擎，分析省域新质生产力的空间联动规律，对统筹区域创新协同、缩小发展差距具有重要的现实意义。基于2010—2022年全国30个省份面板数据，运用熵值法、修正引力模型和社会网络分析方法，探究各省份新质生产力演变趋势与空间关联网络特征。研究表明：1）中国新质生产力发展水平总体上呈逐年上升态势，但区域发展不均衡问题突出，东部地区发展领先，中部地区相对滞后；2）我国新质生产力形成以东部为核心的复杂空间网络，省际空间关联性不断增强，网络密度和网络关系数呈波动上升趋势，而网络等级度呈倒“N”型变化，网络效率阶段性回落，省际创新协作仍存在较大的优化空间；3）北京、天津、上海等省份凭借丰富的人力资源和较高的创新水平，在新质生产力发展中占据领先地位，宁夏、新疆等省份对外辐射带动能力较弱；4）北京、天津、上海等属于主受益板块，广东、浙江、江苏和福建等省份属于经纪人板块，内蒙古、辽宁、河北和黑龙江等省份属于双向溢出板块，湖南、江西、安徽和贵州等省份属于净溢出板块；5）新质生产力空间关联网络受多种因素共同影响，对外开放水平、科技投入、研发强度对新质生产力空间关联具有积极影响，产业聚集与人力资本高级化的影响由负转正，市场化水平的作用呈现“负向—正向—负向”的阶段性变化。我国省域新质生产力存在空间互动关联性，研究结论能够为促进区域创新协同、培育全域新质生产力提供重要参考。

Abstract

New quality productive forces are a key engine for China's high-quality economic development. Analyzing their provincial spatial linkages helps coordinate regional innovation and narrow development gaps. Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2022, this study uses the entropy weight method, modified gravity model, and social network analysis to explore the evolutionary trends of new quality productive forces in each province and the characteristics of their spatial correlation network. The results show that the overall level rises yearly but remains regionally uneven, with the east leading and the central region lagging. A complex spatial network centered on the east forms; inter-provincial linkages strengthen; network density and ties rise with fluctuations; hierarchy follows an inverted N-shape; and efficiency declines periodically. Provinces such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai occupy a leading position in the development of new quality productive forces due to their abundant human resources and high innovation levels, while provinces such as Ningxia and Xinjiang have relatively weak external radiation and driving capacity. Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai belong to the main benefit-receiving block; Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Fujian to the broker block; Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Hebei and Heilongjiang to the bidirectional spillover block; and Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui and Guizhou to the net spillover block. The spatial correlation network of new quality productive forces is jointly affected by multiple factors. The level of opening-up, scientific and technological investment, and R&D intensity have positive effects on the spatial correlation of new quality productive forces; the effects of industrial agglomeration and human capital upgrading change from negative to positive; and the role of marketization shows a phased change of “negative-positive-negative”. These findings provide references for regional innovation synergy and cultivating new quality productive forces across the whole country.

关键词

新质生产力 / 熵值法 / 空间关联网络 / 社会网络分析

Key words

new quality productive forces / entropy weight method / spatial correlation network / social network analysis

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(42361046)

教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目(22YJA630010)

内蒙古自治区自然科学基金面上项目(2026MS0286)

内蒙古自治区高等学校“青年科技英才支持项目”(NJYT23123)

内蒙古自治区社会科学基金(2026AY59)

内蒙古自治区直属高校基本科研业务费项目(20700-54220384)